Will the market for humanoid robots become the world’s biggest total addressable market ("TAM")?

Will the market for humanoid robots become the world’s biggest total addressable market (“TAM”)?

The development of humanoid reports is still very much in its infancy but is projected to grow rapidly driven by the convergence of;

• Hardware: Sensors, battery technology, actuators and other components are all seeing major advances in capabilities

• AI understanding of the world and reasoning capabilities

• An ageing population driving a high demand for the performance of tasks currently done by humans

• Substantial reduction in the cost of humanoid robot production, BoA project the average bill of materials for a humanoid robot to reduce from US$35k to US$12k over the next 10 years

Here’s a summary of the market growth projections of a range of leading analysts in this space;

• Morgan Stanley: US TAM Model forecasts a humanoid population of 8 million units by 2040 (£357bn wage impact) and 63 million units by 2050 ($3 trillion wage impact).

• Goldman Sachs: The global market for humanoid robots could reach $38 billion by 2035.

• Ark Invest: global revenue opportunity, totalling over $26 trillion (US only):$13+ trillion in household tasks (e.g. cleaning, cooking, caregiving), currently unpaid and unmeasured in GDP, $13+ trillion in manufacturing and service sectors, enabling generalised automation at scale previously impossible. Timescales not specified.

• Macquarie: humanoid product category is forecast to grow into a $US3 trillion market by 2050

• Bank of America: Humanoid robot (HR) development will accelerate rapidly, with global annual sales reaching 1 million units by 2030 and a staggering 3 billion humanoid robots in operation by 2060

• Bernstein: Annual shipments of humanoid robots may exceed 1 million units between 2030 and 2032, suggesting a market size of $15-20 billion during that period. They also predict that shipments could rival those of cars within the following two to three decades

• Elon Musk: By 2040, there will be at least 10 billion humanoid robots priced between $20,000 and $25,000

The current largest TAM according to The Business Research Company is the IT sector with a 2025 TAM of US$9.6trillion.

The analyst projections of the humanoid TAM are so diverse that taking an average is probably spurious. What is clear is that the humanoid market is set for a rapid growth and could well be the largest global TAM sometime between 2040 and 2060. What are your thoughts?

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